Good morning y’all,
I know it is Monday morning and politics and geopolitics is the last thing you want to hear. But, I can’t help it. 🙂
Here are things I believe will happen in Ethiopia in the next few months and years.
TPLF Negotiations
The Ethiopian government will sit down with TPLF for negotiations. Abiy might give Weliqayit land for Tigray to become independent. The western world will push for that. Abiy will not want to fight urban guerrilla fighters. They will want the Tigrayan to continue in power with very limited capacity, so they can be used as a checkmate for the Amhara people.
I believe Abiy would not care whether the Amhara people bring back their stolen infrastructure and wealth. True Amhara representatives such as Christian Tadele Tsegaye must sit at the negotiations table to make sure Amhara people get their say in these negotiations. Both Abiy and TPLF do not have the Amhara people’s best interest!
Pan-Ethiopianism
Since the winner of this war is the Oromo politics, in the name of the national dialog Ethiopia will move into Pan-Ethiopiansim. They did not do it earlier because they did not have control of power. Now, due to Tigray’s shortsightedness and arrogance in addition to the Amhara Prosperity party not working for Amharans, the north politics has been naturalized. The Oromo politics were able to manipulate two major ethnicities to go to war and in the process, both sides weakened each other. Due to the barbaric and inhumane crimes the Tigrayans committed against the Amharan people, there is no chance for alliances. Oromo politics has achieved domination with minimum loss. Thus, I say they gained the most from this brutal and hideous war.
Effects of Pan-Ethiopianism
Since the Oromo domination is implemented successfully, the movement has reached a point where they take off the ethnic politics and replace it with Pan-Ethiopianism.
This move will achieve many things:
- It will make many people happy. The Unity camp will join Abiy’s camp. Essentially the diaspora will have no reason to be against the government, though we don’t fully understand the magnitude of this political move.
- It will be a new strategy for Oromo politics to stay in power. As they used ethnic politics to achieve power they will use “nationalism” to stay in power.
- Political figures like Eskinder Nega and Jewar Mohammed and others will be released. Abiy and Oromuma politics successfully used the legal system and the Kangaroo courts to stifle the opposition and to hinder those who were obstacles to achieving the Oromo domination. Since this goal is achieved they could be free because they can not do anything about it.
- Finally the most important aspect of it, ethnic politics will be banned so other ethnicities will not organize themselves and fight the Oromo-led systematic colonization. Traditional and nontraditional ethnic organizations such as Liyu Hail (State special forces), militias, and Fano will be forced either to join the Oromo-led defense force or to dismantle. Leaving other ethnicities unable to compete let alone to cause resistance. Just saying “I have suffered because of my ethnicity” could get anyone thrown to jail.
New Administration Map
The new administration map will be implemented. This will allow Oromos to change demographics and give them access to regional resources without restrictions and jurisdictions. For instance, under this administration structure, there is no reason for an Oromo to not be a mayor of Gonder City.
Oromo Expansion
For a non-Oromo public, if he/she accepted to be treated as a second citizen, things might come down. The next stage in Oromo politics is to dominate East African and African politics. I believe they will use Pan Africanism, the #Nomore movement, and IGAD to achieve that. Soon if you hear the Oromo’s in Kenya and Somalia want independence do not be surprised. The amount of suffering the Amhara people endured will move southwards soon. The yeast for this process is already in place.
Turkish Influence
Though I believe it is an alliance with negative effects, in the long run, Turkey’s influence will grow fast.
I was in Istanbul, Turkey in 2000 when Tayyip Erdogan came to power. The very first order he gave was for the foreign police to arrest anyone that was black. Turks were not friendly to blacks and Christians. They plainly will refuse services and rent just because of the prospective client’s skin color and faith. Erdogan has a not-so-hidden ambition to recreate the Ottoman Empire and to join the Muslim world in one caliphate. If we dare to remember all of our Abyssinia empire’s problems started when Ottoman Empire declared Jihad on our land. Ahmed Gragn was supported by the Ottoman Empire and Ottoman soldiers and weapons were used against us back then.
Following that 19 years of terrorism, Ahmed Gragn was killed but the damage was done. The Oromo migration has filled our land that was left desolate. The lasting impact and problems still linger to this day and there is no end in sight.
Erasing Amharan Culture
The Oromo politics having their true supporter from inception Germany by their side, and by adding Russia, China, and Turkey by playing politics they will come out strong. Using this opportunity they will destroy and/or replace anything they think does reflect the Amharan culture. Such as using Oromifa as the national language, replacing the calendar and time system, renaming cities and places, and so on.
I think we are in a critical place in our history. You might say why do I share these forecasts? Because, if you know you are being manipulated you will not be a willing participant or you will find ways to counter their strategies. One thing I believe they understand estimate is that the power of public anger. It is natural to get angry when one realized he/she is being manipulated and used.
PS:- Oromo politics is using!
Ethnic politics for grabbing power.
National politics to stay in power.
Pan-Africanism for domination.
This is my two cents, I hope I was able to provoke some thoughts for you to reflect on.
I pray for wisdom! 🙏
Yours,
NLM
December 20th, 2021